Kp forecast [-3h]

Kp forecast (+3h)


Kp forecast

About the Plot
The top panel shows predicted Kp in blue (RWC-S) and observed Kp in red (GFZ) over the last three days. Each bar represents the 3-hour width of the Kp index. Attached to the last Kp bar is the latest predicted value. The green solid vertical line marks the time when the prediction was issued, with the timestamp shown in the header. The dashed vertical line marks the timestamp of the latest available input data. The dash-dotted line marks the timestamp of the latest prediction.

The three following panels show the solar wind magnetic field Bz, particle density n, and speed V measured at L1 with 1-minute resolution.

Kp
is the global earth magnetic storm index. The Kp index has a scale of 0 to 9, where a value of 0 means very little earth magnetic activity and a value of 9 means an extreme earth magnetic storm.

The Models
The Kp predictions are generated from four different models with different lead times. Each model consists of an ensemble of time-delay neural networks driven by measured solar wind at L1. The prediction lead time has two components: a variable propagation time from L1 to Earths bow shock, and the model lead time. The four different models are targeted at 0, 1, 2, and 3 hours lead time. Thus, the maximum prediction lead time is 3 hours plus the propagation time.

The inputs to the model are solar wind magnetic field B and Bz (only Bz shown in plot), density n, speed V, and time of day and time of year. The 1-minute solar wind data are transformed into 3-hour values (not just simple averages) to match the 3-hour Kp interval. The models are run once per minute thus providing 180 predictions for every 3-hour interval. In the comparison with the observed Kp, only the predicted Kp with timestamp closest to the standard 3-hour Kp interval is used. In the plot, all bars showing predicted Kp, except the last bar, therefore comes from one prediction for each 3-hour interval. As the prediction lead time is variable and does not match the standard 3-hour Kp interval, the last bar corresponds to the 3-hour interval containing the last predicted timestamp. The last bar will therefore change in height during the passage of time.

References

  • The Kp-prediction models have been described in Wintoft et al. [2017] and further verification in Wintoft et al. [2018].
  • The real-time solar wind data are obtained from SWPC.
  • The real-time Kp index is obtained from GFZ.
  • The main development of the current Kp forecast models was carried out within the EU project PROGRESS, No. 637302.
  • The models have been implemented at the ESA SSA portal under the G-ESC, where additional verification is carried out in real-time.
  • We are responsible for Regional Warning Center - Sweden, part of International Space Environment Service ISES.

Acknowledgement
IRF Lund


DST (+1h)


DST forecast

About the Plot
The top panel shows predicted Dst in blue (RWC-S) and observed Dst in red (WDC-Kyoto) over the last three days. Each bar represents the 1-hour width of the Dst index. Attached to the last Dst bar is the latest predicted value. The green solid vertical line marks the time when the prediction was issued, with the timestamp shown in the header. The dashed vertical line marks the timestamp of the latest available input data. The dash-dotted line marks the timestamp of the latest prediction.

The three following panels show the solar wind magnetic field Bz, particle density n, and speed V measured at L1 with 1-minute resolution.

The Models
The Dst prediction model consists of an ensemble of time-delay neural networks driven by measured solar wind at L1. The prediction lead time has two components: a variable propagation time from L1 to Earths bow shock, and the model lead time which is 1 hour. Thus, the maximum prediction lead time is 1 hour plus the propagation time.

The inputs to the model are solar wind magnetic field B and Bz (only Bz shown in plot), density n, speed V, and time of day and time of year. The 1-minute solar wind data are transformed into 1-hour values to match the 1-hour Dst interval. The models are run once per minute thus providing 60 predictions for every 1-hour interval. In the comparison with the observed Dst, only the predicted Dst with timestamp closest to the standard 1-hour Dst interval is used. In the plot, all bars showing predicted Dst, except the last bar, therefore comes from one prediction for each 1-hour interval. As the prediction lead time is variable and does not match the standard 1-hour Dst interval, the last bar corresponds to the 1-hour interval containing the last predicted timestamp. The last bar will therefore change in height during the passage of time.

References

  • The Dst-prediction models have been described in Wintoft et al. [2018].
  • The real-time solar wind data are obtained from SWPC.
  • The real-time Kp index is obtained from World Data Center for Geomagnetism, Kyoto.
  • The main development of the current Dst forecast model was carried out within the EU project PROGRESS, No. 637302.
  • The models have been implemented at the ESA SSA portal under the G-ESC, where additional verification is carried out in real-time.
  • We are responsible for Regional Warning Center - Sweden, part of International Space Environment Service ISES.

Acknowledgement
IRF Lund


AE

AE

Note! These data are only for non-commercial monitoring purpose.

About the Plot
The number of stations used to derive the index is shown in color. The color scale is displayed at the right of the plot. Users should note that a loss of only one station could miss significant disturbance events. Users should also note that the real-time AE indices can include noise and baseline shift since we use raw data without any visual checks. The AE stations nor we do not have any responsibility caused by these noises and baseline shift.

The Models
The real-time Auroral Electrojet (AE) indices are only for monitoring, diagnostics and forcasting purposes. Since the values are derived from unverified raw data, they may contain inacuracies. These data will be replaced by provisional and final AE index at later dates. Users are advised to use final/provisional AE index for analyses.

Acknowledgement
Kyoto University

We thank AE stations (Abisko [SGU, Sweden], Dixon Island, Cape Chelyuskin, Tixie Bay, Pebek [AARI, Russia], Barrow, College [USGS, USA], Yellowknife, Fort Churchill, Sanikiluaq (Poste-de-la-Baleine) [GSC, Canada], Narsarsuaq [DTU Space, Denmark], and Leirvogur [U. Iceland, Iceland]) as well as the RapidMAG team (NiCT, JHU/APL, UoA, AARI, IDG) for their cooperations and efforts to operate these stations and to supply data with us for the real-time AE index. (Pebek is a new station at geographic latitude of 70.09°N and longitude of 170.93°E, replacing the closed station Cape Wellen.)

The real-time Auroral Electrojet (AE)


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