Aurora Alert

Space Weather Message Code: WATA30
Serial Number: 178
Issue Time: 2019 Mar 21 0851 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Mar 22:  None (Below G1)   Mar 23:  G2 (Moderate)   Mar 24:  G1 (Minor)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

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SIDC URSIGRAM 90321
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 21 Mar 2019, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 21 Mar 2019 until 23 Mar 2019)
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Mar 2019  10CM FLUX: 077 / AP: 004
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Mar 2019  10CM FLUX: 078 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Mar 2019  10CM FLUX: 081 / AP: 007

NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 21 Mar 2019 until 23 Mar 2019
COMMENT: There are two active regions on the visible solar disc. NOAA AR
2735 is decaying and has produced no activity in the past hours. On the
other hand, the newly numbered NOAA AR 2736 (beta magnetic field
configuration) has been more active producing numerous B-class flares and
two C-class flares, the largest wass a C5.6 one peaking at 03:12 UT. This
AR produced a faint CME yesterday directed mostly to the west, first seen
at 18:24 UT on LASCO-C2, this CME is not expected to affect the Earth.
Nevertheless, it had produced a larger CME earlier on March 20, first seen
at 12:00 UT as an asymmetric full halo CME with the bulk of the material
going to the northwest. Using LASCO-C2 and COR2 (beacon) images the speed
of this CME was calculated to be 751 km/s, a flank of the CME is expected
to hit the Earth on March 23.

Solar protons have remained at background levels over the past 24 hours.

The solar wind speed is at 350 km/s with interplanetary magnetic fields of
4 nT. Quiet conditions were observed in the past hours and the situation is
not expected to change until the CME arrival on March 23.

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